---
title: "Moldova fuel price surge threatens double-digit inflation despite central bank rate hold"
url: https://moldova1.md/p/71579/moldova-fuel-price-surge-threatens-double-digit-inflation-despite-central-bank-rate-hold
published: 2026-03-20T11:49:16Z
language: en
section: "Economic"
source: moldova1.md
---

# Moldova fuel price surge threatens double-digit inflation despite central bank rate hold

> Rising fuel costs in the Republic of Moldova are poised to trigger a broad inflationary domino effect, potentially pushing the annual inflation rate into double digits by the end of 2026.

[Video](https://www.youtube.com/embed/fPBjTE-E0C8)

Rising fuel costs in the Republic of Moldova are poised to trigger a broad inflationary domino effect, potentially pushing the annual inflation rate into double digits by the end of 2026.

![](https://storage.moldova1.md/images/9a49df92-8b3e-44bd-848d-623dcb79acb7.jpg)

Economic expert Oleg Verejan warned that the impact extends far beyond public transport, threatening to destabilize prices for food, consumer goods, and essential utilities. While official estimates currently project a 3.5% inflationary uptick, Verejan suggests that indirect effects could double this figure.

**Macroeconomic risk and energy pressure**

According to Verejan, a 50% increase in fuel costs historically correlates with a 6% rise in general inflation. Speaking on Radio Moldova, he noted that if current geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East persist, inflation could climb to 8% this year, potentially breaching the 10% threshold.

Diesel remains the primary concern, accounting for 65% of Moldova’s fuel consumption. High industrial demand has driven diesel prices upward faster than gasoline, creating significant overhead for the transport and manufacturing sectors.

**Monetary response and regulatory ceilings**

On March 19, the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) opted to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5%. The decision aims to balance price stability while assessing the impact of previous monetary tightening.

The BNM reported that annual inflation stood at 5.06% in February, slightly above the previous month but remaining within the bank's target range. Overnight credit rates remain at 7%, while required reserves for MDL-denominated assets are held at 18%.

**Retail price surge at the pump**

The National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) announced new price ceilings effective Friday, March 20. Gasoline will surpass the 28 MDL mark, approximately €1.43 (approx. 28 MDL), while diesel continues its ascent toward 29 MDL (approx. €1.48).

With the government possessing limited direct levers to intervene in a market economy, the burden of stabilization rests largely on the BNM’s ability to dampen consumption through interest rate adjustments and credit restrictions.

Translation by **Iurie Tataru**