Correspondence // Oreshnik, Putin's nuclear missile that aims to frighten the West
Last week, Putin promulgated the state budget for the period 2025-2027, which provides for funds “for defense” of 13.5 trillion rubles, or 126.844 billion euros for 2025. This figure represents a 24.4% increase in the budget dedicated to meeting military needs in the war in Ukraine which is 6.31% of the GDP expected for next year. The amount dedicated to the military represents about 40% of the total expenditures of the Russian budget and will exceed the funds allocated to education, health, economy and social policy.
This, while, in his most aggressive speech since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin began to insistently praise the new Oreshnik missile, claiming that NATO has no technical possibility of intercepting it and warning that Moscow could use it against “Kiev’s decision-making centers.” The missile is capable of carrying a nuclear payload, although for now, Putin says, it will be armed with several conventional warheads.
Putin’s threat, clearly aimed at Europe, comes at a critical moment, as the US is in a political transition and Europe tries to understand Donald Trump’s admiration for Putin and the extent to which this could reduce Washington’s commitment to NATO. Oreshnik – which means “hazelnut” – poses a direct and potentially devastating threat to Europe, even if it is conventionally armed. Putin says its use is due to Moscow’s displeasure with Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and Franco-British Storm Shadow missiles against Russia.
Putin is trying to stoke Western uncertainty and heighten European security fears ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Russian propaganda describes the Oreshnik missile’s flight time to major European capitals as 20 minutes to London and Paris, 15 minutes to Berlin, and 12 minutes to Warsaw.
The Pentagon, as well as Western arms control experts, believe that Oreshnik is not new—they say it is likely based on the RS-26 Rubezh missile, which was tested several times more than a decade ago, was publicly abandoned in 2018, and recently modified. Putin has ordered mass production of the Oreshnik missile and has insisted that many similar systems are being developed. Europe is clearly on the brink of a new “missile age.” In July, the United States and Germany announced plans to rotate American medium-range missiles to Germany starting in 2026—prompting a sharp response from Moscow—while several nations have joined a French-led project, the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA), to develop a long-range missile.
But some doubt NATO’s will to deter Russia, as Moscow seeks to exploit divisions within the states by courting Viktor Orban of Hungary, who has consistently taken a pro-Kremlin stance.
Oreshnik should be banned under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union, which banned missiles with ranges of 300 to 3,500 kilometers. But Trump withdrew the United States from the treaty in 2019, following long-standing U.S. allegations of Russian violations of the treaty.
Putin’s weapon remains fear. It is primarily psychological warfare, and this propaganda still works. It is, in essence, just a misunderstanding of how to deal with Putin.
