Moldova's energy crisis: A threat to stability
Despite government efforts to achieve energy independence, Moldova remains heavily reliant on electricity generated by the Cuciurgan Power Plant (MGRES), situated on the left bank of the Dniester River and controlled by the Transnistrian regime.
As per the State Service for Special Control's report on the necessity of declaring a state of emergency, this power plant remains the most viable solution to meet the country's electricity needs.
Cutoff of natural gas supplies to Transnistria would trigger a humanitarian crisis there and jeopardize the stability of the entire Moldovan energy sector, on both banks of the Dniester River, the document warns. This underscores the strategic importance of MGRES for Moldova's energy security.
Why can't Moldova wean itself off MGRES?
The electricity and natural gas infrastructure in Transnistria remains outside the control of the Moldovan government. As a result, Moldova depends on imports from Romania, which are limited by the country's commercial capacity of just 315 MW out of the total 2,100 MW available through ENTSO-E. Considering Moldova's peak electricity demand, especially during winter, exceeds 1,000 MW, relying solely on imports from Romania or other EU countries is insufficient. The limited Net Transfer Capacity between Romania and Moldova, coupled with network congestion, drives up the price of imported energy.
What would a disruption of supplies from Cuciurgan mean?
An interruption in electricity supplies from the Cuciurgan Power Plant, which provides the bulk of Moldova's electricity, would plunge the country into a severe energy crisis. According to the state of emergency report, Moldova's estimated electricity consumption for the first quarter of 2025 is 1.2 billion kWh, with over 900 million kWh needing to be imported. Given the limited import capacity of 315 MW through ENTSO-E, this is an insurmountable challenge. Such a disruption would lead to exorbitant import costs, widespread blackouts, and a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria, which is entirely dependent on MGRES for energy. Moreover, energy instability would negatively impact the population, the economy, and national security, driving up prices and straining the public budget.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
