Moldova's energy vulnerabilities: dependence on imports and EU electricity
Acute dependence on energy imports ranks first in the list of economic vulnerabilities in the Republic of Moldova, according to the "Expert-Grup" Center, based on recent risk factor analyses.
This ranking is based on the calculation of a vulnerability index that provides a structured evaluation of the main sources of vulnerability in the Moldovan economy. These are assessed on a scale from -1 (minimal vulnerability) to -5 (maximum vulnerability), according to the collective opinion of the "Expert-Grup" experts.
Acute dependence on energy imports falls into the category of high vulnerabilities. Experts note that Moldova is almost entirely dependent on natural gas imports, and two-thirds of the country’s total energy consumption comes from imported sources.
The analysts at "Expert-Grup" also point out a number of mitigating factors. Regarding the gas market, due to the increase in prices following the outbreak of war and the insufficient supply from Russia starting in the autumn of 2022, Moldova was forced to purchase gas from international markets. At the same time, following Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Moldova faced the inability to import electricity from Ukraine. The country had to purchase electricity from the EU, which had major implications for domestic tariffs. Moreover, the synchronized integration of the Ukrainian and Moldovan energy systems into the European power grid (ENTSO-E) in record time in March 2022 helped avoid electricity outages. Furthermore, Moldova is committed to increasing investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy, which has significantly increased its share of total electricity consumption in recent years.
"Expert-Grup" also provides recommendations for reducing acute dependence on energy imports. The government should urgently implement policies focused on stimulating investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy, as well as strengthening electricity transmission infrastructure. Analysts also emphasize the importance of enhancing the capacity of Energocom and possibly other relevant institutions to participate in international energy markets.
In the ranking of high economic vulnerabilities compiled by "Expert-Grup", other factors listed in descending order include the erosion of economic growth potential, the persistence of budgetary imbalances, and the high current account deficit.
The Top 10 Economic Vulnerabilities of the Republic of Moldova was compiled based on the findings of the report "Assessment of Macroeconomic Trends and Prospects of the Republic of Moldova in the Context of Security Risks," prepared by the Independent Analytical Center "Expert-Grup" with support from CASE (Poland), funded by OSF.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
