Three years of war in Ukraine // Aftermath of a devastating conflict and unknown prospects
February 24, 2025 marks three years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that has become the bloodiest in Europe since World War II. After three years of intense fighting, the human and material toll is devastating, and a diplomatic solution remains uncertain.
** Human and economic costs of the war**
The conflict has caused, according to estimates from September 2024, over 1 million victims, according to the report [of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft:
250,000 deaths
Approximately 800,000 injuries
In demographic terms, Ukraine has experienced an alarming decline. From a population of 42 million in 2022, it has decreased to 28-30 million inhabitants in 2025, mainly due to deaths, migration and refugee flows. In 2024, Ukraine recorded the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate in the world, which threatens the socio-economic future of the country.
The economic effects are equally dramatic:
$120 billion lost in national GDP;
$1 trillion in damage to infrastructure and capital;
Thousands of schools, hospitals and industrial facilities destroyed, leaving millions without access to basic services.
Energy and food prices have risen dramatically globally, particularly affecting low- and middle-income countries, while supply chains have been severely disrupted.
Evolution of the front: from rapid advances to a war of attrition
After the initial invasion on February 24, 2022, Russia quickly occupied 27% of Ukrainian territory. However, Ukrainian resistance led to successful counteroffensives in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions in the fall of 2022, recovering about 3% of the territory, according to the BBC.
However, in 2023 and 2024, the war has turned into a conflict of attrition. As of early 2025:
Russia controls about 18% of Ukraine;
Russia's territorial gains over the past year amount to less than 1%;
The most intense fighting has been in the east, in the Donbas region. Russia captured the towns of Kurakhove and Avdiivka after months of intense bombardment. In Avdiivka, 90% of the buildings were destroyed and the population was largely evacuated. Fighting for Pokrovsk remains ongoing.
In the north, near the city of Kharkiv, the Russian offensive in May 2024 led to the occupation of several villages. However, Ukrainian forces, supported by Western weapons and state-of-the-art drones, have managed to stabilize the front.
In the south, Russia maintains its presence in the Zaporizhia region, controlling the land corridor to Crimea, essential for the logistics of the Russian army.
Failed negotiations
Diplomatic efforts have been multiple, but without concrete results. In March-April 2022, the talks in Istanbul proposed Ukraine's neutrality and international security guarantees. Ukraine would have agreed not to join NATO, in exchange for external protection. The talks failed amid the revelation of war crimes committed by Russia.
In 2024, President Zelensky suggested a territorial exchange: the return of territories occupied by Russia in exchange for withdrawal from regions conquered by Ukraine in western Russia. The Kremlin rejected the proposal, describing it as "unacceptable".
The US administration, under President Donald Trump, is trying to negotiate an end to the conflict, but only with Russia at the table. For now, the EU and Ukraine have not been involved in the talks. Situation criticized by Kiev and European allies.
Global impact and dilemmas of the West
Global food prices have increased by up to 40% in some regions due to the blockade of grain exports. The energy crisis has severely affected Europe, with record prices for gas and electricity.
The US has spent $175 billion on military and humanitarian support for Ukraine by the end of 2024. The blockages in Congress call into question the continuation of this support.
The European Union, faced with a new wave of refugees (over 6 million people), is reconsidering its defense and migration policies.
What next?
Despite failed diplomatic efforts, public and international pressure is growing to stop the fighting. In Ukraine, recent polls show that over 60% of citizens support peace negotiations, although many oppose territorial concessions. On the other hand, the Kremlin seems determined to continue the offensive, counting on Kiev's economic and military attrition.
