Could NATO’s future be at risk? Merz calls for European defense shift
The alarm was raised immediately after the elections in Germany, when Friedrich Merz, whose center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) secured the highest vote share, warned that NATO could be nearing its end and that Europe must be prepared to establish a military alliance independent of the United States.
Merz even suggested that Europeans could form a military structure by the next NATO summit in June.
Merz also stated that it was Europe's prerogative to ignore any agreements between Putin and Trump and provide Ukraine with the necessary resources to fight, funded by $300 billion in seized Russian assets. He further said he would urge the United Kingdom and France to protect Germany with their nuclear weapons if Trump were to withdraw the U.S. from Europe.
Under a government led by Merz, Germany could become a stronger advocate for Ukraine, as the CDU leader expressed his support for supplying Kyiv with German-made Taurus long-range missiles. This decision had been repeatedly ruled out by Chancellor Scholz, who feared provoking Vladimir Putin and escalating the conflict.
Merz publicly criticized Trump over Ukraine, especially after his recent statement that Zelensky is a "dictator." Merz also accused Trump of falling for the "Russian fairy tale" about the war in Ukraine.
Merz stated that Europe’s 80-year alliance with the U.S. could be outpaced by history, as he considers Trump to be "indifferent" to the continent, making clear remarks about his plans for his future administration.
In a harsh criticism of Trump, the CDU leader compared the Trump administration's tactics to those of Moscow, after Elon Musk supported the far-right AfD in the German elections.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also hopes to convince Trump, with whom he will meet following Emmanuel Macron's lead, that peace in Ukraine will only be achieved if America acts as a "pivot" for a European peacekeeping force. It is uncertain whether Starmer will be heard. Part of the reason he was downgraded to fourth on the list of leaders to meet Trump is because he has so little to offer, partly due to London’s very low defense spending.
This comes after Volodymyr Zelensky—whom Trump referred to as a "dictator”—offered to step down from the presidency if necessary to ensure peace and Ukraine’s NATO membership.
Macron already met with Trump on Monday, February 24, and Keir Starmer is set to meet him on Thursday, but the two Europeans have spoken to each other to ensure they present a united front.
There is already a political consensus that the UK and Europe must jointly increase military spending, but it is unclear how Europeans can find more funds for defense without undermining their economies. One common route could be to relax the overly strict fiscal rules.
The Russian threat appears to be the perfect excuse for suspending the budgetary rules that most economists see as a barrier to restarting economic growth.
For instance, the EU may agree to break the Stability and Growth Pact to allow larger joint loans, as it did during the pandemic. At present, the EU’s new fiscal and debt rules limit government deficits to 3% of GDP and debt to 60% of GDP. Going forward, a country that exceeds the 3% deficit threshold would not face disciplinary action if an emerging excess is due to defense spending.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
