Geneva centre reveals detailed Russia-Ukraine ceasefire plan
For the first time, the Geneva Centre for Security Policy has released a 31-page document that thoroughly examines methods for monitoring and ensuring the ceasefire along Ukraine’s front line, which stretches over 1,200 kilometers.
The New York Times (NYT) drew attention to this document on Sunday, March 9, noting that it had been distributed in February through confidential channels during periodic meetings in Geneva. These discussions involved foreign policy experts from the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, all closely linked to their respective governments, according to DW.
The plan: A 1,200 km long and 10 km wide buffer zone
Funded by the Swiss government, the document represents one of the most detailed models for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, transitioning from theoretical concepts to concrete solutions.
“One of the most extensive ceasefire monitoring operations in history will need to be implemented quickly. However, no clear planning has been made yet regarding what this process could look like,” explained Walter Kemp, a European security expert and one of the document’s authors.
The plan proposes the creation of a buffer zone at least 10 kilometers wide to separate the two armies, patrolled by 5,000 civilians and police officers. Additionally, approximately 10,000 foreign military personnel would be needed to protect international observers who would monitor the ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weaponry to agreed distances from the buffer zone.
This mission is expected to operate under the auspices of the United Nations (UN).
Negotiations, prisoners, and humanitarian corridors
The document also suggests that international monitoring should be accompanied by a joint commission made up of representatives from both Russian and Ukrainian forces. This mechanism would allow accountability and address essential issues such as prisoner releases, landmine clearance, and the creation of humanitarian corridors through the buffer zone.
“This will be an unprecedentedly complex challenge,” said Samuel Charap, a Russia expert at the RAND Corporation in Washington.
One of the major obstacles is that the territory occupied by Russia in Ukraine is five times larger than the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea. Another significant issue is the diversity and complexity of the weapons used by both sides.
The document was created with the involvement of experts from Ukraine, Russia, the US, and the EU
According to Thomas Greminger, director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, the document was developed with the help of international experts and former military commanders experienced in peacekeeping missions, although all participants acted anonymously.
“We had to be extremely discreet,” Greminger explained, noting that he had organized “confidential discussions” among foreign policy experts from Ukraine, Russia, the US, and Europe.
The participants in these meetings were not official government representatives, but were informed in advance by their authorities and were expected to report the conclusions of the discussions in internal reports.
Since 2022, these meetings have aimed at establishing a communication channel with Moscow, and the 31-page document is the result of earlier debates regarding possible ceasefire scenarios and conflict resolution.
Putin: the greatest obstacle to a peace agreement
Most experts agree that the biggest challenge to implementing such a plan remains the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Russian officials promised up until the last moment that Putin would not invade Ukraine. No monitoring mission will be able to stop him if he decides to resume the offensive,” The New York Times notes.
In this context, Janis Kluge, an expert on Russian politics at the Institute for International Affairs and Security (SWP) in Berlin, warns against the risks of hoping for an imminent ceasefire: “It is dangerous to feed ourselves with illusions about an inevitable ceasefire. I do not believe Russia will accept an agreement where Ukraine remains sovereign, even over the territory it currently controls,” Kluge said.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
