Opinion: Russia aims to control Moldova, remove Maia Sandu, then attack Odessa from the rear
Russia has reportedly revised its war plans in Ukraine, now aiming to gain control over Moldova by supporting pro-Russian forces in the upcoming elections on September 28. The intention is to oust Maia Sandu through a coup d'état and subsequently launch an attack on the Odessa region from behind, with assistance from Chisinau. This information was shared by Aleksii Arestovich, a former military intelligence officer, political analyst, and former presidential advisor in Ukraine, who outlined the potential stages of this scenario in a post on Telegram.
According to Arestovich, the resignation of Dmitry Kozak – Putin’s close friend and the only person in Russia’s military-political leadership who opposed the “special operation” in Ukraine – would mark the triumph of the “war party” in Moscow.
“This would mean that the peace process has been suspended as an idea (the imitation can continue), and the war will expand – this is the decision made. Actions against Europe will be carried out, for the time being, in a hybrid manner: through drones, sabotage, mass uprisings, interference in elections, provocations in maritime and air space,” Arestovich believes.
As for the former post-Soviet space, Russia could pursue direct objectives in Ukraine. According to the former presidential adviser in Kiev, the previously leaked map from the office of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces showed that the Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa regions are targeted as part of Moscow’s strategic plans. Capturing them through direct operations would take years and involve heavy losses, which is why, Arestovici claims, Russia could act "from behind", through the Republic of Moldova.
"In ten days, there will be parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova. The logic of the Russian plan is simple: the removal of Maia Sandu from the Presidency through a parliamentary coup, by liquidating the pro-European majority. If pro-Russian forces enter the Parliament, it can suspend the President's powers. The Constitution of the Republic allows this. Formally, everything will be "according to the law", although, in essence, it is a takeover of power. The next step will be to replace the Prosecutor General with a pro-Russian person. The Prosecutor will open files "on order", under any invented pretext. The goal: the removal of the pro-European head of state. Then – early presidential elections, massive vote buying, banning the diaspora vote and the installation of a pro-Russian president in the Republic of Moldova”, the military intelligence officer anticipates.
Later, according to the scenario described by Arestovici, there would be the mobilization of “tourists”, the “people’s army” and the army from the Transnistrian region to open a hybrid front against the Odessa region.
“The Russian army will come to the aid of “free and fair” Moldova with supplies, money, security information, troops, fleet and aviation. Then, infiltration will begin in the Odessa direction – border operations by small sabotage groups, raids by larger units, actions by sabotage groups in Odessa. The goal: to create a political image of “fascist Ukraine out of control” against “independent Moldova”, with “military actions of Odessa rebelling against the Kiev regime”. The next operation: the capture of Kherson. Thus, Nikolaev is under double pressure – from the rear and logistically, and, voila! – “New Russia is ours!”. They may act a little differently, but the general logic is this,” the Ukrainian analyst is convinced.
In the same Telegram post, Arestovici warns that the only way to prevent such a scenario is the rapid and firm mobilization of the security forces in the Republic of Moldova and Romania, as well as the awareness of Moldovan citizens of the risk of falling under Russian influence after the parliamentary elections.
We note that the interference of the Russian Federation in the elections in the Republic of Moldova is recognized from the highest tribunes in the West. Recently, the European Parliament approved a resolution condemning Moscow’s interference in the internal affairs of Chisinau and reiterated its support for the European path of the Republic of Moldova.
President Maia Sandu also warned, in the plenary session of the European Parliament, that the Russian Federation is financing subversive actions in the Republic of Moldova and schemes to corrupt voters, with the aim of taking control of our state and using it against Ukraine.
