EU Accession: Moldova's fate linked to Finland Peace Plan
President Maia Sandu is scheduled to speak on Tuesday, November 4, in Brussels, at the inaugural European Media Summit organized by the Euronews group.
This high-profile event brings together leaders from most of the nine EU candidate nations and will be televised live. The summit aims to assess the progress of the nine countries toward EU accession negotiations and coincides with the publication of the latest European Commission report.
The European Commission report, however, makes it clear that Chișinău’s (Moldova EU candidate status) immediate fate remains intertwined with Kyiv’s (Ukraine EU bid) in the EU accession process. This linkage is notable considering the report criticizes the Ukraine EU bid less harshly than it does Serbia—which started negotiations a decade ago—or Georgia, whose process is currently suspended.
The nine candidates are organized into three distinct groups: five Western Balkans countries (Albania, Bosnia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia); the Eastern 'package' of Ukraine–Moldova; and the two 'stragglers,' Turkey and Georgia.
The critical importance of the Finland peace proposal
With negotiations for Turkey and Georgia interrupted, the most challenging file remains Ukraine, primarily due to the ongoing war with Russia. For this reason, the success of the unreleased but widely discussed Finland peace proposal—a European plan initiated by Helsinki—is critically important for the Republic of Moldova.
This plan reportedly aims for a ceasefire and a "non-aggression pact" between Ukraine and Russia. While Moscow would halt offensive attacks, Kyiv would commit to refraining from militarily attempting to recover Russian-controlled territories in regions like Crimea, Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
A key element concerning the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is the idea of transferring its control from Russia to an unnamed third party, which would precede negotiations for Ukraine to regain control. The proposal also suggests that Ukraine and Russia begin a process to agree on compensating war damages using the over 200 billion euros in frozen Russian assets in Europe, which would be returned upon reaching an accord.
Without such a mediated agreement, like the yet-to-be-publicized Finland peace proposal, the Moldova EU candidate journey remains bound to Ukraine’s, potentially only allowing for the technical, but unofficial, start of accession negotiations.
A decade-long process: Recapping the EU accession timeline
The EU accession negotiations for Kyiv and Chișinău rapidly accelerated following Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022. President Volodymyr Zelensky applied for membership on February 28, 2022, and the Republic of Moldova and Georgia followed closely on March 3, 2022, fearing they would be Vladimir Putin's next targets.
The European Commission report of November 8, 2023, formally recommended that the 27 member states open formal EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and grant candidate status to Georgia.
EU integration is a lengthy, multi-year process. Aligning a candidate's national legislation with European law involves complex accession negotiations that have historically spanned a decade, as shown by past enlargements: Hungary and Poland (applied 1994, joined 2004); Romania and Bulgaria (applied 1995, joined 2007); Croatia (applied 2003, joined 2013).
The Commission issued its opinions on the applications of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia on June 17, 2022, in a remarkably short timeframe—positive for the first two, but negative for Georgia. Following this, Ukraine and Moldova unanimously received official candidate status from the 27 member states on June 23, 2022.
Challenges for the Eastern Trio: Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine
Each country faces unique hurdles. Ukraine's primary difficulty is the war, which fundamentally undermines the ability to guarantee stable institutions and a viable economy.
For Moldova EU candidate status, while the European Council of December 14, 2023, approved the recommendation to start talks with Chișinău, the actual start of formal EU accession negotiations continues to be postponed.
Georgia's candidacy has suffered due to alleged ties between its political and economic elite and Russia. Furthermore, the EU views Tbilisi’s recent repressive legislation, particularly the controversial "foreign agents law," as a significant move away from its European path. While some member states favor stronger action, measures such as the January 2025 suspension of certain visa facilities are currently blocked by the vetoes of Hungary and Slovakia.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
