Gas prices may fall in 2026
Gas prices may decrease in 2026; however, authorities caution that any current estimates would be speculative. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Energy and the National Energy Regulatory Agency (ANRE) emphasize that many misleading narratives have surfaced regarding this issue, which can distort public perception.
Energy Minister Dorin Junghietu stated that the purchase prices of gas are already lower than those reflected in the current tariff, and the European market is stabilizing.
"The pressure on the European market is decreasing; stocks are full, countries have diversified their sources, and TTF prices are falling. All of these factors provide a real basis for a downward adjustment. However, we will only be able to provide an exact figure after the end of the year. The Republic of Moldova has secured over 65% of its gas supply for the cold season directly from a Romanian producer, with the remainder being purchased through the stock exchange," explained the energy minister.
ANRE Director Alexei Taran explains that the final tariff is determined by several factors, not just gas costs.
"Gas accounts for approximately 60% of the final tariff. The remaining costs include distribution, transportation, operational expenses, and accumulated deviations. These additional costs can only be accurately calculated after December 31, when we know the exact cost of gas for December," explained Taran.
Misleading narratives about tariffs
Authorities have noted that the absence of final calculations is being used in public discussions to create misconceptions. Energy Minister Dorin Junghietu cautions that many comparisons are made with the intent to mislead.
"Prices in the Republic of Moldova are often compared to capped or subsidised tariffs in other countries. This creates confusion and perpetuates false narratives," the minister explains.
Another common misconception involves the comparison with the TTF (Title Transfer Facility) price. Junghietu points out that "TTF prices fluctuate hourly. Our tariffs are calculated based on the average annual cost. You cannot compare a one-day price with a tariff set for an entire year."
ANRE Director Alexei Taran also refutes the claim that Moldova has "the most expensive gas."
"In many countries, the bill includes three separate components: gas, transport, and distribution. In our case, all these costs are included in a single bill. Comparing a complete bill with an incomplete one is misleading," Taran states.
He also addresses another prevalent myth regarding traders, saying, "Traders are a standard part of the European market. At times, they can offer better prices than producers. The fact that some gas is purchased through traders is not an issue; it is a normal practice."
The final gas price for 2026 will depend on the actual acquisition costs in the fourth quarter, the future evolution of the FTT until the end of the year, and the volume of financial deviations accumulated in 2025. The amount of gas stored in Romania and Ukraine exceeds 50 million cubic meters, ensuring stability for the winter. The actual price of gas will be determined by December 31. The official request for a tariff adjustment is expected in early January, and ANRE has up to 90 days to complete its final analysis.
