Moldova’s €3.50 cigarette packs: A magnet for youth addiction
The Republic of Moldova remains a sanctuary for affordable tobacco in Eastern Europe, with prices significantly lower than those in the European Union. While officials argue for "gradual" tax increases to prevent illicit trade, health experts warn that slow policy shifts reflect a dangerous susceptibility to industry pressure.
A pack of cigarettes in Moldova costs approximately €3.50 (approx. 69 MDL), compared to €6.30 in Romania and €13 in France. This price gap is at the heart of a fierce debate between fiscal stability and national survival.
Youth as "replacement smokers"
Public health specialists argue that slow excise duty hikes fail to meet World Health Organization (WHO) standards. Low prices keep tobacco accessible to the most price-sensitive groups: the youth and the low-income population.
"Slow tax growth is a strategy favored by the industry to keep products affordable for young people," said Ghenadie Țurcanu, an expert at the Center for Health Policies and Studies (PAS). He suggests the industry views youth as "replacements" for long-term smokers lost to mortality.
Allegations of industry interference
Suspicion regarding industry influence peaked in 2024. During the fiscal policy approval process, the government reduced taxes on Heated Tobacco Products (HTP) consumables following an explicit proposal from a major tobacco company during public consultations.
"The proposal came directly from the industry, which is a breach of the law," Țurcanu added. "Legislation forbids industry interference in tobacco control policies."
Former Health Minister Ala Nemerenco echoed these concerns, stating that whenever her ministry tried to tighten regulations, it faced internal government resistance. Arguments about "protecting the budget" often outweighed health considerations.
Fiscal logic vs. health costs
The Ministry of Finance maintains that tax hikes must be predictable to avoid market shocks. Victoria Belous, Vice-Chair of the Parliamentary Economic Committee, noted that excises are currently set to increase by 13% annually through 2026.
"We cannot double or triple taxes overnight without impacting consumers and risking a surge in illegal trade," Belous explained. She emphasized that 85% of a cigarette pack's price in Moldova already consists of taxes (VAT and excise).
Industry representatives, such as Vasile Coșneanu of the "Tutun Moldova" Association, support this gradual approach. He argues that matching German prices in Moldova would be "socially and economically incorrect" and would only fuel the black market.
The €510 million toll
Despite the fiscal debate, the human cost remains staggering. Smoking-related illnesses cause approximately 6,000 deaths annually in Moldova, with a smoking prevalence of nearly 30%—far above the EU average of 19.7%.
Health estimates suggest tobacco consumption generates annual economic losses of approximately €510 million (10 billion MDL). These costs include medical expenses and lost productivity, a bill that experts say far exceeds the revenue generated by low tobacco taxes.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
