On Putin’s menu": Expert warns Moldova risks exclusion from Ukraine peace talks
Romania has intensified its diplomatic pressure for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria. During the Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels, Bucharest officials repositioned the Republic of Moldova at the heart of European security debates.
Security expert Andrei Curăraru warns that the Russian military presence remains a "Sword of Damocles" over Chișinău and Kyiv. While these units have not directly joined the invasion of Ukraine, they represent a latent threat that Moscow could activate to destabilize the region.
The risk of exclusion
"It is vital for Moldova to be on the agenda of these negotiations," Curăraru stated during the In Context program on Moldova 1. He cautioned that excluding the European Union from future peace talks could be catastrophic for Chișinău.
The expert warned of a scenario where local interests are ignored in high-level deals. "Without EU involvement, we risk moving from the top of the news cycle onto the menu of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump," he added.
A permanent security solution
The Kremlin’s long-term objectives likely remain unchanged, with the current pause seen merely as a tactical realignment. Curăraru argues that Putin aims to secure better terms before potentially resuming his advance toward the Black Sea, which would effectively end Moldovan statehood.
To prevent this, the expert suggests that the EU must use its financial and commercial leverage. As the primary funder of Ukrainian reconstruction, Europe has a legitimate seat at the table to demand regional security guarantees.
Russia’s military vulnerabilities
Despite the perceived threat, the Russian military faces significant internal crises. Curăraru highlighted acute manpower shortages, forcing Moscow to recruit personnel from as far as Kenya or rely on symbolic North Korean reinforcements.
On the front lines, Russian forces are suffering from overextended logistics and "communication blindness" due to a lack of modern systems like Starlink. The expert anticipates that Ukraine will continue to tactically correct the front line, reclaiming lost territories.
The 20th sanctions package
The discussions in Brussels coincided with efforts to adopt the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia. Romania’s Foreign Minister, Oana Țoiu, reaffirmed that the withdrawal of Russian troops is now a consolidated European position.
"We see a path to integrate the Transnistrian region by offering citizens hope for a European future," Țoiu stated. However, she emphasized that any permanent solution remains contingent on the removal of the Russian military presence.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
