EU 20th sanctions package stalled by Hungary as experts warn of long-term frozen conflict in Ukraine
The European Union’s 20th sanctions package against Russia hit a deadlock on February 23 during the Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels. Hungary conditioned its approval on the resumption of Russian oil flows via the "Druzhba" pipeline, a move described by EU High Representative Kaja Kallas as unrelated to the package’s core objectives.
This legislative friction reflects a broader challenge to European unity. Experts suggest that while countries like Hungary and Slovakia leverage economic interests for political rhetoric, they have yet to decisively dismantle the Union's financial and military support framework for Kyiv.
The shift toward an indefinite armistice
Current battlefield dynamics suggest a "Korean-style" scenario is increasingly likely. Dr. Ștefan Bejan, a historian and researcher at WatchDog.MD, notes that this would involve an indefinite armistice and a frozen front line on current positions.
"The aura of Russia as a dominant power has eroded significantly since 2022," Bejan stated. He argues that any potential truce would serve as a strategic pause rather than a lasting peace, highlighting that Ukraine's resistance continues to act as a primary shield for European security.
Military evolution and energy sovereignty
The conflict is entering a transformative phase where manpower is secondary to technological superiority. Professor Cristian Nițoiu of Loughborough University emphasizes that the next twelve months will see Ukraine pivot sharply toward securing and domesticating its energy production.
"Military leaders suggest the war may persist for another three years," Nițoiu remarked during a Radio Moldova broadcast. He noted that despite internal EU dissent, the bloc has recently surpassed the United States in total aid volume, signaling a long-term commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty.
Ending the cycle of energy dependency
The debate over cheaper Russian gas remains a point of contention used by Moscow to fracture European resolve. Political analyst Nicolae Negru warns that viewing energy through a purely economic lens is a strategic error, given Russia's history of weaponizing resources.
Negru pointed out that the EU’s past dependence on Russian energy led to a "humiliating situation" post-invasion. He maintains that while the Union's decision-making process is notoriously bureaucratic, it remains the only viable mechanism to counter Moscow’s geopolitical pressure.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
