Vitalie Știrba on birth decline: Young mothers are decreasing
In 2025, the Republic of Moldova continued to experience population decline, although the rate of depopulation slowed compared to 2024. Another persistent demographic challenge for our country is the extremely low birth rate. In 2025, only 22,100 children were born, marking the lowest figure since the country declared its independence.
The latest data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that as of January 1, 2026, the Republic of Moldova had a population of just over 2.3 million. However, these statistics do not capture all categories of citizens.
Vitalie Știrba, a scientific researcher at the Demographic Research Center of the National Institute for Economic Research, explained in an interview with Veronica Scorpan on the “Zi de Zi” program on Radio Moldova that "These figures do not include individuals who have lived in the country for less than nine months over the past year. They also exclude the population on the left bank of the Nistru, those in the municipality of Bender (Tighina), and people who primarily reside in other countries."
The most alarming demographic phenomenon is the historically low birth rate. Demographers attribute this severe decline to a chain reaction stemming from the post-pandemic period, which can be compared historically to the demographic effects of the 1918 Spanish flu.
“At the same time, the security level for young families is decreasing due to the ongoing regional conflict and the economic difficulties that arose after the pandemic. Additionally, we are seeing a consistent decline in the number of young mothers and in general, the number of women of childbearing age,” stated Vitalie Știrba.
Migration remains the primary driver of depopulation, contributing to over 55% of the total decline. Negative migration resulted in a loss of nearly 13,000 people, contributing to the overall decrease of 23,000.
"It’s important to remember that 2022 was the year immediately following the lockdown when migration flows were reopened, resulting in a significant number of people leaving, even amid the panic caused by the war. Once the situation stabilized, the rate of emigration decreased," the expert said.
The demographer noted that one reason for this trend is narrowing wage gaps relative to the cost of living in European countries.
"We are also seeing an increase in the number of people returning to the Republic of Moldova, especially retirees and immigrants from the first wave of migration," Vitalie Știrba emphasized.
According to the researcher, the ongoing process of European integration is unlikely to trigger a new massive exodus. "Those who genuinely wanted to leave have already departed."
However, the demographer asserts that the ability of local authorities to modernize infrastructure will directly impact the local population over the coming years. "In areas lacking access to basic municipal services like water and sewage, we will continue to see a sharp decline in the population," Vitalie Știrba concluded.
