Experts say Moldova could be targeted by Russian aggression before the Baltic states
The Republic of Moldova risks becoming a new target of Russian aggression, overtaking the Baltic states in security assessments. Faced with hybrid threats and drone incursions, Chișinău is attempting to strengthen its defense capabilities—a process hampered, however, by budgetary constraints and a shortage of weaponry on the international market.
How safe (or unsafe) is the Republic of Moldova?
Combating the hybrid war waged by Moscow remains a major challenge for the authorities, given that the Kremlin's destabilizing actions target the entire Western community. Andrian Cheptonar, an MP from the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) and Deputy Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defense, and Public Order, states that while the situation is under control, risks stemming from the Russian Federation's aggressive policy persist.
"We are not free of risk, nor are we complacent, but I believe the Republic of Moldova is currently a safe country. However, we face numerous risks and challenges due to the actions of the Russian Federation, which has instigated threats against all Western states. It is a type of state with a mentality rooted in Russian criminal subculture—one that respects only force," Andrian Cheptonar stated during the September 17th show "Bună Seara" on Moldova 1.
The opposition views the effectiveness of state institutions in protecting citizens with skepticism. Alexandr Berlinschi, an MP from the "Our Party" (PN), warned that the inaction of certain officials leaves the population vulnerable, even though the difficult regional context should not deter preparedness efforts. "The Republic of Moldova is secure as long as there is no direct threat to it. Regarding the ability of state institutions to protect citizens—regrettably, this is becoming less certain due to the inaction of those required to fulfill their professional duties. When looking at the regional context, we are certainly not as well-prepared as we could be, but, again, this should not discourage us," noted Alexandr Berlinschi.
The frequency of drone incidents within national territory confirms Moscow's intention to sow psychological instability and social insecurity. Pavel Horea, a security expert at Watchdog, emphasized during the same broadcast that repeated airspace incursions serve as clear instruments of regional pressure.
"I would say we are facing an increasing number of provocations from the Russian Federation. We see a year-on-year rise in the number of drones that either fly over the Republic of Moldova's airspace or crash on its territory. We observe that the Russian Federation continues to leave its mark on the region, attempting to exert pressure and aiming to create panic and a sense of insecurity among the population," explained Pavel Horea.
Strengthening military defenses and acquiring anti-drone systems have enhanced the country's security compared to the initial phase of the war in Ukraine. Sociologist Tatiana Cojocari explained that acts of sabotage and destabilization attempts orchestrated by Moscow have become far more visible, with the primary aim of inciting panic among the population.
"I would say that the Republic of Moldova is safer now than when the war began, because we have since bolstered our military defenses and are working on anti-drone capabilities. However, the danger has always been present, and the European Union is already seeing numerous terrorist attacks and even acts of sabotage. Essentially, what we are witnessing now is the Russian Federation taking off the gloves and acting without restraint—the danger is much more apparent. We must acknowledge that we are indeed in a hybrid war, yet we will feel even less secure the moment there are casualties on the territory of the Republic of Moldova," Tatiana Cojocari stated.
Moscow's strategy: Hybrid warfare and testing NATO's limits
The Kremlin's strategy has shifted toward undermining public confidence in international alliances and security treaties. Tatiana Cojocari highlighted that the failure to achieve initial objectives has driven Russia to seek to delegitimize structures such as the EU, NATO, and the UN. "The Russian Federation has stated very clearly that it no longer wants NATO to expand its sphere of influence in the region—we are talking about Poland and the Baltic states. However, the goal it appears to be pursuing now—having failed to achieve its initial objectives—is to delegitimize existing structures and erode our trust in them: the European Union, NATO, the United Nations, and international treaties. Essentially, everything has been shattered, and we are witnessing Turkey—a member of the North Atlantic Alliance—entering into an alliance with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia," the sociologist stated.
Violating the airspace of neighboring states is a direct tactic used to gauge the North Atlantic Alliance's defensive response, MP Cheptonar noted.
He explained that these actions aim to compel Western governments to reserve their military resources for their own protection, thereby slowing down deliveries to Ukraine.
"We have seen instances in Poland and the Baltic states, and very frequently in Romania. So, the Republic of Moldova is not the only target of these incursions. I believe the Russian Federation is testing the limits of what it can get away with. However, when NATO states perceive themselves as potential targets of an attack, they are less inclined to supply weaponry to Ukraine, because every government prioritizes the security of its own citizens," Cheptonar commented.
MD Alert warning system delayed
Amid mounting threats, the national mobile-based rapid public warning network is facing administrative and technical delays. Alexandr Berlinschi noted that the launch of the MD Alert project was initially viewed with optimism, as it represents a vital tool for informing citizens in the event of danger.
"We saw the optimism with which the launch of the MD Alert system was announced in February 2026. Sometimes, it is enough for a citizen to receive an alert message on their phone," the "Our Party" MP said.
Acknowledging delays in the project's implementation, authorities assure that work is underway to optimize the necessary infrastructure. Andrian Cheptonar explained that the system requires complex technological adaptations by telecommunications operators and close coordination with defense institutions.
"It is true, the MD Alert system is a project we are behind on, but work is being done to develop it. It will likely be launched in the near future. Telecommunications providers also need to adjust their technologies and implement systems they did not previously possess. Interaction with defense institutions must be developed. This is not something that can be done in a single day," the MP explained.
Republic of Moldova: A potential future target of Russian aggression
Moscow’s geopolitical pressure could shift directly to the Republic of Moldova if it fails to meet its military objectives in Ukraine. Tatiana Cojocari notes that credible Western sources confirm the Republic of Moldova is of interest to the Russian Federation.
"We must also pay attention to statements coming from the Russian Federation, as we know that Russia usually states its intentions openly when it wants something. Moscow uses these threats to discourage specific political behavior. In the coming months, the Russian Federation will remain focused on Ukraine; depending on whether it achieves its objectives there, the next target could be the Republic of Moldova, the Baltic states, or any other European Union country. Consequently, Russia's actions compel us—and other EU states—to arm ourselves," Tatiana Cojocari emphasized on public television.
Warnings from international security experts place our country in a vulnerable position should the conflict expand. Andrian Cheptonar cited analyses by the former head of US intelligence services to illustrate the risks faced by a country lacking NATO security guarantees.
"David Petraeus, the former CIA Director, stated at the Yalta European Strategy conference that if Russia were to expand its aggression to a former Soviet republic, the Republic of Moldova would be a likely target because it is more vulnerable and lacks NATO protection. We must understand that the Republic of Moldova will not necessarily be attacked; this is merely a scenario-based assessment of a potential situation," the MP said.
The Republic of Moldova is increasingly being targeted by the illegal overflight of its national territory by Russian explosive-laden drones.
On September 16, the Republic of Moldova condemned the repeated violations of its national airspace by drones at the OSCE and called on the Russian Federation to cease actions destabilising the region.
In her address to the 1145th meeting of the Forum for Security Co-operation, Ambassador Victoria Roșa highlighted the increasingly alarming nature of these incidents, citing their frequency, cross-border trajectories, and the risks they pose to the population and civil aviation.
Furthermore, a recent investigation by The New York Times revealed that the Republic of Moldova ranks second—after Ukraine—among Russian targets in this war. Having failed to bring about a change of power in Chișinău through street violence during the 2024 and 2025 elections, Moscow is now recalibrating its hybrid warfare plans for the former Soviet republics.
Lately, the Kremlin has been using the Transnistrian issue to threaten the Republic of Moldova. However, security experts say the risk of military escalation remains negligible.
