Moldova faces energy crisis, Russia threatens gas cutoff
Prime Minister Dorin Recean will address Parliament today to declare a 60-day state of emergency in the energy sector.
This urgent measure is prompted by the potential gas supply cutoff to Transnistria by Russia's Gazprom starting January 1, 2025. Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebrian warns that the upcoming energy crisis could surpass the severity of the 2022 crisis.
A potential gas supply halt by Gazprom could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria and jeopardize Moldova's entire energy supply, impacting both sides of the Dniester River. Approximately 300,000 Moldovans in the region could face severe winter shortages of gas and electricity.
The Transnistrian power plant, MGRES, has limited coal reserves that might sustain the region's electricity consumption for a maximum of 50 days. However, the coal's quality remains uncertain. If MGRES becomes inoperable, Moldova will heavily rely on electricity imports from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), particularly Romania. Given Romania's own energy challenges, with up to 30% of its consumption met through imports, the situation becomes increasingly precarious.
Deputy Prime Minister Serebrian warns that both sides of the Dniester River could face electricity shortage. In a worst-case scenario, Transnistria might consume electricity from Romania without proper control.
Russia's ongoing attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, a former source of electricity imports for Moldova, further exacerbates the crisis.
Oleg Serebrian emphasized that existing legal frameworks and the Commission for Exceptional Situations (CSE) lack the capacity to address this potential crisis. A scenario worse than 2022, with both gas and electricity shortages affecting the left bank of the Dniester, is a real possibility.
A 30-day state of emergency was declared in Transnistria too. The de facto authorities there remain uncertain about future Russian gas supplies.
From January 1, 2025, the natural gas transit contract between Russia and Ukraine, which also covers supplies to Transnistria, will expire. Ukraine has indicated its intention not to renew the contract, although a final decision is pending.
While alternative gas supply routes from Russia exist, Gazprom has not yet reserved them. The Russian energy giant is conditioning gas supplies on Moldova settling a disputed historical debt of $700 million, a claim that the Moldovan government rejects based on a previous audit. Prime Minister Dorin Recean has reiterated Moldova's stance, stating that the country will not recognize or pay the alleged debt.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
