Experts: Our country produces enough grain. The decrease in Russian exports will not affect the Moldovan market
Russia's announcement that it will reduce grain exports in the 2024-2025 agricultural season will not impact the Moldovan market, including imports of flour or buckwheat, suggest several specialists from Chisinau. Our country produces enough grain to cover consumption on the domestic market, but also for export, experts claim.
Russia's grain exports are set to fall by a fifth after grain crops were hit by adverse weather, the Russian Agriculture Minister announced on Wednesday, according to Russian media. Exports will therefore fall from 72 to 57 million tonnes.
Experts in Chisinau claim that Russia makes such statements to make transactions at speculative prices on the international stock exchange, but these are not always accompanied by concrete actions, said Iurie Rija, director of the Association of Exporters and Importers of Agricultural Products and Grains "Agrocereale". According to him, Russia, one of the largest wheat producers in the world, uses tactics similar to those applied in the natural gas sector, transforming grains into economic and political weapons.
"I would like them to act, that is, not only at a declarative level, because Russia makes these statements more to speculate on prices. Yes, so it made a statement for sure. Russia is one of the largest wheat producers. Of course, this is not done by chance, this is a political statement. The Russians do not make all statements based on economic principles”, says Iurie Rija.
Moreover, such a decision by Russia could not significantly affect the market in the Republic of Moldova, because imports from this country have decreased significantly in recent years, Iurie Rija claims. In addition, our country has enough raw material to ensure both the domestic market and for export.
“For us, it is very beneficial if Russia exports less. We have good signs for the wheat harvest this year, we still have very large reserves of wheat in stock, and the price today is very good, because it is 4 lei. We have enough mills that can grind and cover demand. We also export flour, we do not have any problems today. In recent years, little has been exported from Russia, and more flour has been imported to us permanently from Ukraine,” says the director of the “Agrocereale” Association.
Such news that Russia will reduce its exports of some cereal products, such as wheat or buckwheat, should not worry us. In the event of a possible deficit, our country can cover it with imports from other countries, says the expert of the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS Viitorul), Viorel Chivriga.
“We have had situations before when there were already some signals that buckwheat imports from the Russian Federation were decreasing and there could be problems, but we are in a globalized world. Although when there is a deficit on the market at the moment, in a very short period it is compensated based on imports from other states and Russia is not the only country producing such products. Those who import and who specialize in the cereal business adapt very quickly. If there may be some price issues, they are issues for a very short period. The imports that are made are based on the presence on the shelves for a fairly long period,” says Viorel Chivriga.
Statistical data show that in January-November, imports of goods from the Russian Federation constituted 2.3 percent of the total, 37 percent less than in the same period of 2022. Also, deliveries of cereals and preparations based on them decreased by 6 percent.
