Moldova’s trade relations: U.S. impact and EU market risks
The trade relations between the United States and the Republic of Moldova will not be affected by the new trade rules imposed on other countries by U.S. President Donald Trump, experts have stated for Radio Moldova.
However, these global trade tensions could indirectly impact Moldova's exports to the European Union, with the country at risk of losing its trade share due to decreasing competitiveness. Analysts recommend that authorities closely monitor international trade developments and create forecasts to implement appropriate measures.
The global trade conflict triggered by President Donald Trump may affect Moldova, not so much in terms of direct commercial relations with the U.S., but in the context of Moldova’s trade links with both the European Union and the United States.
Although Moldova's exports have experienced a steady decline in almost all sectors over the last two years, some exceptions exist. One of these is trade with the United States, which has seen a substantial increase from $25 million to nearly $100 million in exports, according to economic expert Veaceslav Ioniță. He added that Trump’s trade conflict would not affect bilateral trade relations with Moldova.
The most significant exports to the U.S. are food products, including wines, which account for 20%, with the rest of food products making up over 50%, while plastic products rank second. However, this trade war with the European Union and other countries will not affect food exports, and Ioniță believes Moldova will continue to successfully export these products to the U.S. as they will not fall into the high-risk categories.
Moldova’s largest exports are to the European market, and in this context, the tariff dispute between Donald Trump and the European Union will affect the country mainly in the automotive sector, where Moldova exports components to the EU. According to Ioniță, in 2024, this sector reached a record level, exceeding $700 million. For example, exports to the Czech Republic have increased significantly. Due to these international conflicts, Moldova risks losing part of its market share in the European Union.
The biggest problem lies in the automotive sector. Other exports, such as fruits, have no connection to the U.S. market, as Europeans are the primary consumers. The agricultural products sector is not affected. However, the automotive industry, which only developed in Moldova after 2020 as part of the European Union integration process and increasing investments, is seen as the most vulnerable sector.
The international market remains volatile, with potential delivery issues and supplier changes. However, the situation will become clearer over time, stated economic expert Viorel Chivriga. According to him, the Ministry of Economy must remain vigilant and develop detailed forecasts.
If countries that are Moldova's main trading partners are affected, it will also become a problem for the country. These are the countries whose markets are targeted by Moldovan companies. If U.S. deliveries to these countries decrease, a problem will arise for Moldova’s products as their competitiveness may be compromised. A market flooded with local products that are cheaper and more competitive is a less secure place for Moldovan goods.
In 2024, imports from the U.S. to Moldova accounted for 1.5%. The value of these goods is estimated at over $135 million, from the total of $9 billion in imports last year.
At the same time, the United States held a 2.5% share in Moldova’s exports, meaning the country delivered goods worth $89 million to the U.S. from a total of $3.56 billion in exports.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
