Moldova’s economy in 2024: Stagnation or economic reset?
Moldova’s economy saw minimal growth in 2024, with GDP rising by just 0.1%. Severe droughts and the ongoing war in Ukraine significantly impacted foreign investment and domestic consumption, leading to economic stagnation.
According to Radu Marian, Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Economy, Budget, and Finance, infrastructure projects could be a key driver of economic recovery by attracting investments, creating jobs, and boosting trade.
Marian emphasized that while several government programs have been introduced to stimulate growth, their effects are not immediate. He also highlighted that the European Growth Plan, worth €1.9 billion, will support Moldova’s economy over the next three years, helping accelerate growth and increase citizens’ incomes. Rejecting claims of economic collapse, Marian stated that Moldova is experiencing an economic reset rather than a recession, pointing out that wages have increased in recent years despite inflationary pressures.
Looking ahead to 2025, Marian expressed optimism, citing the approval of the Growth Plan, which will provide more resources for infrastructure, road construction, and investment in programs like "European Village." He also mentioned increased funding for businesses and interest rate subsidies, all of which he believes will contribute to economic growth.
However, opposition MP Petru Burduja, a member of the Committee on Economy, Budget, and Finance, disputes this optimistic outlook. He argues that Moldova is in a clear recession, pointing to low GDP growth, high inflation, declining exports, and a shrinking job market. Burduja also criticized the government’s policies, stating that external loans exceeding 17 billion MDL in 2024 undermine claims of economic growth. He called for concrete measures, such as fiscal policies and export promotion strategies, to support the real economy.
Economic analyst Marin Gospodarenco also voiced concerns, noting that while domestic consumption increased in 2024, it was not enough to offset declining exports. He stressed that there are no quick fixes for economic recovery but suggested that attracting greater investment in infrastructure could boost employment and competitiveness.
Experts highlight the importance of modern infrastructure, particularly in transport, energy, and IT, as a means of attracting foreign investment and facilitating trade. Additionally, they emphasize the need to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are vital to Moldova’s economy. Key recommendations include improving access to financing, providing tax incentives, and simplifying regulations to create a more business-friendly environment.
Challenges remain, including political instability ahead of the upcoming elections and economic uncertainties in the European Union and the wider region. GDP growth in 2024 fell short of the 2.5% forecast by the Ministry of Economy, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. Over the past decade, Moldova experienced its highest economic growth in 2021, reaching nearly 14%, while the sharpest decline occurred in 2020, when GDP fell by over 8% due to the pandemic.
For 2025, authorities project a 3% GDP growth, but ongoing political and economic challenges could influence Moldova’s recovery trajectory. The debate continues on whether the country is on the path to stability or facing deeper structural problems.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
