Experts: Putin's peace offer masks Ukraine's capitulation
Russia will likely try to use the upcoming summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump to convince the U.S. president of its good intentions for peace, while continuing to pursue maximalist goals—the total capitulation of Ukraine, according to several experts cited by the Russian service of The Moscow Times.
"The Russian side can frame this in dozens of different ways, creating the impression that Moscow is open to serious concessions and negotiations," notes Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Berlin.
Moscow "has been doing this for some time, but the basic position remains unchanged: Russia wants Kyiv to capitulate," she reminds.
"Putin could not afford to surrender, and Trump could not impose sanctions without being sure they would yield results. Neither of them wants to look weak. This is where the paralysis of the situation comes from," describes Sam Greene, director of the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
"The proposed negotiations—if they happen, of course—could be a way out," Greene believes.
A breakthrough big enough for Trump to claim his threats had an effect, but not so big that Putin appears to be ceding ground. This is, however, a more convenient solution for Russia than for any other party.
Senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, Alexander Baunov, believes that Russia is once again trying to present the situation as if Ukraine and its allies are to blame for the prolonged conflict—and not itself.
"Moscow is trying to reframe the war in such a way that it takes place where and in ways that it has more advantages, and does not take place where it has fewer," Baunov wrote on Telegram.
He added that a potential ceasefire could benefit Russia, as it would reduce the pressure on Western countries from which Kyiv is urgently awaiting air defense systems.
Stanovaya considers the most likely scenario to be that these peace efforts will fail again.
"Russia will continue its campaign, and in a few months, a new round of negotiations could take place—this time on even more unfavorable terms for Ukraine. The conflict, shifting from open warfare to periods of increasing tension, will likely persist for the foreseeable future," Stanovaya concludes, according to The Moscow Times.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
