Zapad-2025: Russia and Belarus begin massive military drills near NATO borders
Russia and its close ally Belarus have begun joint military drills, codenamed "Zapad-2025", across their territories and in the Baltic and Barents Seas.
The drills come at a time of heightened tension in the war in Ukraine, just days after a Russian drone incident in Poland.
The Russian defence ministry said the drills were aimed at "improving command skills, troop cooperation, and joint combat training." The Kremlin insists the drills are "not directed at anyone," but they come two days after Poland shot down suspected Russian drones that had entered its airspace.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that his country is going through "critical days" and stated that Poland is "closer to open conflict than at any other time since World War II." As a preventive measure, Poland has completely closed its border with Belarus and deployed additional troops to the frontier, while Lithuania and Latvia have restricted their airspace.
The scale of the drills
While Russia mobilized around 200,000 troops for the last "Zapad" exercise in 2021, the scale this year is reduced due to Russia's massive military involvement in Ukraine. Belarus initially announced the participation of 13,000 soldiers, but that number was later reduced by half. Western estimates, however, vary between 20,000 and 30,000 troops, including logistical support.
The drills are also said to involve Russia's new experimental nuclear-capable missile, the "Oreshnik," and simulations of tactical nuclear attacks.
Reactions
While Minsk and Moscow claim the drills are defensive and are only a test of interoperability within the "Union State", their NATO neighbours believe the scenarios are a direct threat to their security. Poland has warned that the exercises are simulating the occupation of the Suwalki Gap—a strategic area between Poland and Lithuania considered NATO's major vulnerability. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has dismissed these fears as "total absurdity."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the "significance of such actions is not defensive, but directed against Ukraine." In Kyiv, intelligence services suggest that Russia could use the manoeuvres as cover for new operations in Ukraine or to intensify hybrid warfare against the Baltic states.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
