Demographic crisis deepens: Employees nearly equal retirees
The Republic of Moldova is experiencing a significant demographic imbalance due to high levels of emigration and low birth rates, which pose a threat to its long-term economic sustainability. In an interview with the public broadcaster Moldova 1, demographer Valeriu Sainsus highlighted the direct effects on the state budget and the labor market. He emphasized the need for active public policies to ease the strain on social and economic systems.
"The Republic of Moldova is in a fairly accelerated stage of aging, compared to European countries. There are two factors: population reproduction and population emigration. Additionally, in this context, we note an increase in the elderly population over 70 years old. (...) Additionally, we also have an increase in the pre-retirement age categories – those between 50 and 60 years old", the expert notes.
In this context, the demographer anticipates a reversal of the ratio between the active and retired population, which will amplify the economic challenges related to the sustainability of the system.
"The ratio between those who are in the workforce and those who are retired is almost equal. From a demographic perspective, things could probably be reversed. And this comes from the context in which we are also witnessing a slow increase in life expectancy, which means that the retired population will still grow numerically faster", explained Valeriu Sainsus.
At the same time, the expert also highlighted a change in emphasis in demographic aging: the share of employees after retirement, which could bring additional budgetary contributions, being reduced.
"If the first stage of demographic aging was against the background of an aging of age categories up to 70 years, in the second half the accents are different, and the dependency of the elderly population will be much higher. I must say that we have a very low share of those who remain employed after reaching retirement age". The demographer advocates for active policies, reiterating the process as a challenge for developed societies.
"It is a challenge for the system, in the context in which developed societies are aging. The difference with us is that the elderly either don't want to or have nowhere to work. Because the majority of the elderly population resides in the countryside, where employment opportunities are scarce. In this context, active demographic aging policies are necessary", concluded Valeriu Sainsus.
At the beginning of 2025, the population aged 60 or over reached over 616,000 people, which means that every fourth inhabitant. Official statistics also reveal that in 2024 the number of economically active elderly people amounted to 98.2 thousand people, representing 11% of the total active population.
