Expert: Moldova's economic stagnation matches 1990s low
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth R. Moldova) has barely moved, increasing by only 0.4% over the last five years, a figure that signals severe Moldova economic stagnation.
The forecast for 2025 projects growth of no more than 1%. Veaceslav Ioniță, an economic policy expert at IDIS "Viitorul," stated bluntly that this trend means "stagnation," adding, "worse than this was only in the '90s."
Ioniță's analysis highlights alarming sectoral declines in 2024: agriculture dropped by 14.6% (a loss of roughly seven billion lei), and industry saw a loss of about three billion lei. The broader five-year picture shows industrial production shrinking by 1.3% and agriculture by 2.8%.
The country's trade position has deteriorated sharply. Exports plummeted by nearly $500 million, a negative trajectory expected to continue through 2025.
"Today, we export raw materials and import finished products. We have transitioned from being oil exporters to sunflower exporters and oil importers. The agricultural balance has turned negative, a situation not seen for decades," Ioniță emphasized.
The recession has also been reflected in the labor market. The number of economically active and employed people dropped to 808,000 in the second half of 2024, marking the lowest level ever recorded.
A major contributor to the crisis is the prohibitive cost of the energy crisis. The gas tariff has spiked from 4.64 to a crippling 29.27 lei.
"The Republic of Moldova has the highest gas price in Eastern Europe. The population has been forced to confront what true energy poverty means," the economist warned.
Concurrently, the absolute poverty rate has surged. In the southern regions, the rate soared from 31% a decade ago to nearly 50% today. The north saw an increase from 26.5% to 32.2%, and even the capital, Chișinău, rose from 7% to 11%.
Despite the grim figures, foreign direct investment (FDI) saw only a marginal drop, from $4.9 billion in 2023 to $4.8 billion in 2024. Yet, Moldova still ranks as the country with the lowest FDI per capita in Eastern Europe.
The public debt also continues its climb, rising from 124.6 billion lei in 2024 to 131.2 billion lei in the first half of 2025. Ioniță contends that the most worrying factor is that a significant portion of these internal loans fuels consumption rather than productive investments.
New government promises 2% growth in first 100 days
Attracting investments and boosting economic growth are the stated primary goals of the Munteanu Government, which took office at the end of October.
Deputy Prime Minister Eugen Osmochescu, Minister of Economic Development and Digitalization, announced that the new cabinet has a clear action plan. Measures to be implemented in the first 100 days are projected to achieve economic growth of "up to 1-2 percent."
Translation by Iurie Tataru
