INTERVIEW | Japan Faces Rising Tensions with China and Uncertainty Over U.S. Alliance
Tensions in East Asia are growing, fueled by strong rhetoric from Beijing, increased military activity near Taiwan, and doubts about the reliability of the United States as a security partner. In response, Japan is accelerating changes to its defense policy and reassessing its role in the region.
Maiko Ichihara, professor at Hitotsubashi University and expert in international relations, explains how Tokyo perceives these developments and the risks they may pose.
China’s pressure on Japan continues
China has long applied pressure on Japan, particularly targeting Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. While Beijing’s warnings follow Japan’s plans to deploy long-range missiles and express concern over Taiwan, much of the rhetoric appears aimed at asserting influence without triggering full-scale escalation.
Maiko Ichihara notes that the Chinese government has targeted Takaichi even before she became Prime Minister. She says China is likely to continue issuing verbal threats and other forms of pressure against Japan.
“The timing of China’s threats suggests that Beijing is serious about its intentions regarding Taiwan,” Ichihara explains. “China reacted after Takaichi stated in parliament that Japan would consider a Chinese military passage through the Taiwan Strait a security risk. This signals that China wants Japan to remain uninvolved. At the same time, China monitors U.S. responses, and it may use tensions with Japan to leverage negotiations with the United States, particularly on economic deals. Despite the strong rhetoric, China appears cautious about escalating tensions. For example, recent sanctions against Japanese politician Keiji Furuya had little practical impact, highlighting the limited nature of Beijing’s actions”.
‘Grey-zone’ activities dominate Japan’s planning
Japan interprets China’s strategy as a continuation of “grey-zone” tactics and hybrid activities rather than a direct military threat. Ichihara says the dominant view in Japan is to prepare for ongoing low-intensity threats while avoiding outright conflict.
“Some worry that China may use military force to annex Taiwan,” she says, “but others believe that avoiding direct military action is in China’s interest. The Japanese approach focuses on preparing for continued grey-zone activities and hybrid tactics, which reflects the majority perspective.”
Concerns over China-Russia ties outweigh Iran
Japan closely monitors China’s growing ties with Russia, though awareness of Iran’s role remains limited. “The Japanese society has serious concerns about China and Russia’s strengthened cooperation,” Ichihara notes. “China poses a potential physical threat, and Japan has been critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, understanding of Iran is weaker. Discussions focus mainly on maintaining the U.S.–Japan alliance and securing energy supplies.”
Uncertainty over U.S. reliability
Japan relies heavily on the United States, but questions remain about the alliance’s reliability, particularly in scenarios involving Taiwan. Ichihara notes that signals from Iran could further complicate U.S. base operations in Japan, highlighting the risks of depending on an uncertain partner.
“Japan must consider how to protect itself,” Ichihara says. “Current signals from Iran indicate that U.S. naval deployments from Japan could be targeted. This underscores the need to rethink our security posture while navigating the U.S.–Japan alliance.”
Trust-building remains key
Even amid rising tensions and ongoing influence operations by China and Russia, trust-building remains a critical strategy. Ichihara emphasizes the importance of long-term efforts to strengthen relations between countries and security partners despite ongoing information warfare.
“Strengthening trust is crucial,” she explains. “Japan faces influence operations aimed at destabilizing society and straining alliances. Understanding these dynamics and working to maintain trust is essential, even over the long term.”
