How Rutte Will Navigate NATO Amid Trump’s Possible Return
The potential shift in the configuration of the US elections this fall is being closely monitored across Europe, including in Brussels at NATO and EU headquarters, as well as in Moscow and Kiev.
Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will assume the role of NATO Secretary General in October. He will confront complex issues, beginning with the possibility of Donald Trump's return to the White House.
During his campaign, Republican candidate Trump made it clear that American aid to Ukraine would be reduced, which could potentially derail NATO’s strategy in the event of a Russian offensive towards Kiev. Consequently, Mark Rutte will seek to sustain aid to Ukraine, aiming for a minimum of $40 billion annually.
Since becoming Dutch Prime Minister in 2010, Rutte has maintained a low profile in the Netherlands. At 57, he was known for biking to work in The Hague, continuing to teach history one day a week at a local secondary school, and regularly visiting a few cafes and restaurants in the city centre.
Rutte, the longest-serving Prime Minister in Dutch history, earned the nickname “Teflon” due to his adept handling of political scandals, none of which have stuck to him.
Given the nature of the Dutch parliamentary system, Rutte is accustomed to working in complex coalitions. He is widely regarded as a stable politician who builds consensus, a trait that helped him secure the support of over 30 heads of state in his most recent high-level bid.
Mark Rutte remains an experienced politician, known for his sincerity, directness, flexibility, and efficiency. Leading NATO for a new term, even a lengthy one, should not intimidate him. He has served as head of the Dutch government for 14 years, a record term.
In light of the upcoming US presidential elections in November, Rutte possesses another skill that has made him a popular candidate. During Donald Trump’s presidency, Rutte demonstrated his ability to handle the whims of the White House and communicate directly.
At the 2024 Munich Security Conference, Rutte appeared untroubled by the prospect of another four years of Trump, asserting that Europe needs to stop “whining and complaining about Trump.” His remark echoed a statement he made about Trump in 2019: “We need to collaborate with whoever is on the dance floor.”
By then, the Netherlands will have finally spent 2% of its GDP on defence by the end of 2024 and has become a reliable partner for Kiev, leading with initiatives such as providing F-16 aircraft to Ukraine.
The Netherlands has also allocated $4.35 billion in military aid to Ukraine, ranking fifth overall among donor countries.
However, the country remains behind Central and Eastern European nations in terms of defence budget spending. Poland’s defence spending reached just over 3% of GDP in 2023, and the country plans to spend a substantial 4% in 2024. Some countries are still far from this target, such as Italy, which spends 1.5% of GDP on defence, and Spain, with 1.28%.
Rutte will be a natural successor to Jens Stoltenberg. After recently stepping down as Dutch Prime Minister after 14 years, he is well-known for his ability to build coalitions. He is also known to be a workaholic and a staunch advocate of rules and regulations, qualities that are beneficial in a military organisation. He has repaired relations with former adversaries, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and is highly regarded in major capitals, especially Berlin and Paris.
Rutte is expected to find a middle ground between cautious major NATO members, such as Germany and the USA, and those neighbouring Russia, partly because the Netherlands does not fit into any specific category. This is the main reason why the Netherlands has produced three NATO Secretaries General so far. It is a country large enough to have an impact but small enough to avoid unsettling others with unmeasured ambitions.
Author: Dan Alexe
Translation by Iurie Tataru
