How Trump’s second term will impact Europe and Ukraine
January 20 marks the inauguration of Donald Trump’s second term as President. Europe, Ukraine, Israel, and virtually the entire world anxiously await, wondering what his initial actions and decisions will entail.
In Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelensky and his cabinet fervently hope that Donald Trump will not suddenly halt aid to Ukraine. As a businessman who prides himself on his negotiation skills, Trump is unlikely to strike a deal with Vladimir Putin that makes the United States and the West appear to be retreating.
Ukraine cannot depend on Trump’s goodwill to ensure peace. Instead, it must remain resilient enough to force Russia to end its aggression and deter future attacks.
But who enjoys Trump’s goodwill in Europe? Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has been pointed out by many as a potential ally and key contact for Trump. Mateusz Morawiecki, the Polish leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group, stated before Christmas that she is "an ideal intermediary" between Europe and the new U.S. administration. Billionaire Elon Musk is also among Meloni’s supporters. However, not everyone in "Trumpland" is convinced of her conservative credentials.
Meanwhile, Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, and other MAGA (Make America Great Again) loyalists are determined to block any influence from Meloni. In recent weeks, they have criticized her in the Italian press, describing her as a left-wing politician masquerading as a populist. "She’s not one of us," Steve Bannon remarked, accusing Meloni of aligning with "globalists" and being "one of the strongest supporters of continuing the war in Ukraine."
Who, then, is Trump’s true bridge to Europe? According to Bannon, it’s not Meloni but populist leaders like Marine Le Pen in France, Nigel Farage in the United Kingdom, and Viktor Orbán in Hungary, who resonate with MAGA loyalists.
As for Giorgia Meloni, her friendship with Elon Musk appears to have been a political lifeline. The challenge for her will be how long Musk’s relationship with Trump lasts.
Once, Steve Bannon aspired to become the advisor to Europe’s populist right. He even launched a European organization to unite the continent’s often fractious far-right and Eurosceptic factions. His movement never took off, largely due to differences among nationalist-populist parties, particularly regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine and migration.
Elon Musk, however, has made inroads among European populists and far-right parties, partly because of the financial backing he can attract. Nigel Farage, for instance, hopes for a substantial donation to his Reform Party in the UK, while Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been thrilled by Musk’s support and the shockwaves it has sent through German politics.
Musk’s team has reportedly discussed plans for the owner of "X" to hold a live discussion with Alice Weidel, AfD’s neo-fascist candidate for chancellor, ahead of Germany’s elections on February 23, confirming earlier reports by Der Spiegel.
In short, the next year will be defined, above all, by Trump’s interactions with a rapidly changing world. Washington’s influence is more crucial than ever.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
