Moldova pension deficit to drop to €97M by 2028
The Republic of Moldova’s public pension system is showing signs of stabilizing, yet long-term sustainability remains threatened by a shrinking workforce and the shadow economy. Elena Tibirna, Director of the National Social Insurance House (CNAS), reports that while financial indicators are improving, structural imbalances persist.
The social insurance budget deficit is currently declining from previous highs to approximately €184.6 million (approx. 3.6 billion MDL). Official projections suggest this figure could drop further to €97.4 million (1.9 billion MDL) by 2028, marking a significant recovery since the institution's founding in 2001.
The dependency ratio crisis
The most critical vulnerability remains the ratio between taxpayers and beneficiaries. Currently, only 1.18 employees support one pensioner, a figure that has stagnated for nearly eight years and falls dangerously short of the international recommendation of 4–5 workers per retiree.
"Moldova has never reached that standard," Tibirna noted, highlighting that the country’s historical peak was roughly 2.1 workers per pensioner over a decade ago. This demographic pressure necessitates constant state intervention to bridge the funding gap.
Shadow economy impacts
Undeclared labor remains a primary threat, costing the national budget an estimated €761.4 million (15 billion MDL) annually. This phenomenon not only weakens current liquidity but also undermines the future social security of the younger generation.
CNAS officials point to a lack of early financial education, noting that many young graduates prioritize higher immediate net pay over declared, taxed income. This "living for today" mentality results in a lack of health insurance and diminished future pension rights.
Despite these impacts, CNAS lacks the legal authority to combat labor fraud directly. Enforcement remains the responsibility of the State Tax Service and the State Labor Inspectorate, leaving CNAS to focus on digitalization and public awareness campaigns.
Translation by Iurie Tataru
